Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:19:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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12 0x1280…6b24 crypto 1395 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 100d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$21,902 (-26%) realized −$21,963 · open +$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%1376W / 18L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day20.9pace
Fees−$384est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7,997now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,883
7 days+$1,883
14 days+$936
30 days−$13,877
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% +$88
sports 41% −$14,894
other 3% +$1,078
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +15.7% +4.7% 100% 50% +18.2%
≤30d 8 -20.3% -27.9% 50% 38% -54.7%
≤90d 8 -20.3% -27.9% 50% 38% -54.7%
all 1394 +0.2% -9.3% 99% 1% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 1% -26.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 1% -33.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -39.6%
20% -33.2% 0% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$980 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$7,997
Realized−$21,963
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1376 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$384
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1394 / 1395
History coverage101d ⚠
Avg bet$60
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1394 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 66¢ $7,936 $7,997 +$61 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $6,145 +$1,883 +31%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 23 $4 $0 +1%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,970 −$1,947 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $914 +$1,001 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $318 −$315 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $899 +$392 +44%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $12,605 −$12,500 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5,070 −$2,390 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 22 $4 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 22 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 22 $61 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 22 $66 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 22 $90 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 22 $94 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 22 $41 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 22 $97 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 22 $86 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 22 $37 −$37 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 22 $94 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 22 $95 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $8,020 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 76¢ $6,145 24h
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) BUY Portugal 99¢ $4 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $1,970 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $914 13d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $318 14d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $899 14d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 72¢ $12,605 26d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 29¢ $2,680 26d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $5,070 26d
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 95d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $29 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $70 95d
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 95d
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 95d
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 95d
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 95d
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $56 95d
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 95d
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 95d
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 95d
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $60 95d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $45 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 95d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $55 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,997.48 · official $7,997.48 (match) · 3500 history records