Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:22:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
12 0x1281…4286 crypto 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$34 (+8%) realized +$36 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate61%42W / 27L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$27
14 days+$32
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$22
other 39% −$20
sports 10% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +19.0% +7.7% 63% 52% -3.0%
≤30d 69 +21.2% +9.7% 61% 51% -1.9%
≤90d 69 +21.2% +9.7% 61% 51% -1.9%
all 69 +21.2% +9.7% 61% 51% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.7% 51% -1.9%
10% -0.8% 33% -11.3%
15% -10.4% 28% -19.9%
20% -19.2% 26% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$36
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses42 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage9d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $24 +$3 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7 +$5 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$5 +31%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 +$3 +13%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +9%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$11 +499%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +9%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$2 +216%
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 17 $2 $0 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $24 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $7 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 26h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 35h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $1 35h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 35h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 35h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 35h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 92¢ $19 35h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 36h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 36h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 39h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $14 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $24 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $6 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $12 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.12 · official $43.12 (match) · 137 history records