Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:58:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1283…ddf0 crypto 758 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (100 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,884 (+28%) realized +$3,884 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate54%407W / 351L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day100.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$149
other 4% +$88
weather 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (100 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 +0.7% -8.9% 61% 45% -11.6%
≤30d 758 -5.1% -14.1% 54% 47% -10.0%
≤90d 758 -5.1% -14.1% 54% 47% -10.0%
all 758 -5.1% -14.1% 54% 47% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover100.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 47% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 37% -18.6%
15% -29.8% 30% -26.5%
20% -36.7% 21% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,884
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses407 / 351
Open positions0
Markets (closed)758 / 758
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day100.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 758 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $49 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $57 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $59 −$18 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $87 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $54 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $45 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $90 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $163 −$30 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $87 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $52 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$13 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $85 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $61 −$37 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $90 −$8 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $194 −$35 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$10 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $63 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $123 −$17 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $74 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $63 −$11 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $69 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $49 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $43 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $39 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $44 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $44 −$21 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $67 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $98 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $54 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $87 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $71 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$6 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records