Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:23:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1284…7474 world 75 markets active 2d ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$106 (-5%) realized −$106 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate27%19W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$37
14 days−$78
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% +$35
world 31% −$63
other 9% −$23
finance 4% −$6
sports 3% −$45
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +4.8% -5.1% 33% 19% -5.8%
≤30d 28 -15.7% -23.8% 25% 14% -16.1%
≤90d 46 -15.7% -23.8% 26% 17% -14.6%
all 71 -11.5% -19.9% 27% 18% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 18% -13.9%
10% -27.6% 13% -22.2%
15% -34.6% 8% -29.7%
20% -41.0% 7% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses19 / 52
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 75
History coverage112d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Jun 16 $7 −$1 -13%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $15 $0 -2%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $41 −$3 -7%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $357 +$8 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $41 −$41 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $18 +$2 +9%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 15 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -92%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -73%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a Jun 14 $1 +$7 +659%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $308 +$94 +30%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +109%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in March? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first? Jun 11 $7 −$5 -68%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Jun 11 $27 −$27 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Jun 11 $64 −$56 -88%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Jun 11 $6 −$3 -55%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $61 −$19 -31%
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 May 09 $20 −$6 -32%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 25 $102 +$17 +17%
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $81 −$18 -22%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 10 $10 −$2 -23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 08 $38 −$13 -35%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 07 $175 −$10 -6%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 05 $42 −$25 -58%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 02 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 02 $53 −$6 -11%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 02 $4 $0 -5%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $122 +$27 +22%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 01 $8 +$1 +11%
Will Trump say "Mad" this week? (April 5) Mar 31 $5 −$3 -54%
Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" this week? (April 5) Mar 31 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" this week? (April 5) Mar 29 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Trump say "Plastic Egg" this week? (April 5) Mar 29 $10 −$6 -60%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 29 $77 +$22 +29%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Mar 23 $2 $0 -24%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 20 $5 $0 -2%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 19 $53 +$3 +6%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Mar 16 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 16 $8 −$5 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 61¢ $5 47h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo SELL Ronaldo 36¢ $6 47h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $15 47h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 69¢ $38 47h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 60¢ $9 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $11 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 3d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $21 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $10 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 88¢ $32 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $3 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $15 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 88¢ $18 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2 4d
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Ronaldo 40¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $28 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 87¢ $40 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $68 4d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $3 4d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 316 history records