Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:10:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1287…deac politics 191 markets active 2h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,488 (+0%) realized +$1,488 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate20%37W / 152L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$1,732per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$994now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$35
14 days−$66
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$203
other 32% +$192
sports 10% +$1,410
world 2% −$5
economics 2% −$2
culture 1% −$6
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 46 +3.5% -6.3% 11% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 101 -0.4% -9.9% 8% 5% -9.1%
all 189 +1.3% -8.3% 20% 10% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 10% -9.1%
10% -17.1% 10% -17.8%
15% -25.1% 9% -25.8%
20% -32.5% 7% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,396) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$7 · ×9.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$994
Realized+$1,488
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses37 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)189 / 191
History coverage146d
Avg bet$1,732
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 100¢ 100¢ $822 $821 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $172 $172 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $7,665 −$8 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $845 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $944 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $2,021 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $9,615 −$10 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $893 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $2,592 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $4,966 −$6 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $2,097 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $5,373 −$7 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $918 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,462 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $7,106 −$8 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $3,761 −$6 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $181 +$3 +2%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,646 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,026 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $894 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $2,244 −$3 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $1,022 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,415 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $1,978 −$3 -0%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $78 +$34 +44%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $925 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $2,670 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $5,380 −$7 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $41 +$64 +158%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $3,053 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,469 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $5,997 −$6 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,693 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,191 −$3 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $84 +$54 +65%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $455 $0 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $2,647 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $528 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $2,007 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $706 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $437 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,396 −$3 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,049 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 25 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $1,050 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 24 $3,469 −$6 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $822 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $814 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $816 4h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $844 6h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $845 8h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $942 2d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $944 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $172 2d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $820 2d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $821 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $936 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $938 2d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $892 5d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $893 5d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $651 5d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $652 5d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $758 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $759 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $949 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $950 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $627 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $628 6d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,104 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,106 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $916 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $918 8d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,199 8d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,200 8d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,201 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,202 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $993.54 · official $993.54 (match) · 710 history records