Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:51:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1289…6f82 crypto 253 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$87 (+1%) realized +$915 · open −$828
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%101W / 151L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$419now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$334
7 days+$165
14 days+$165
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$968
crypto 17% +$514
sports 7% −$174
politics 6% −$82
tech 5% −$14
world 5% −$22
weather 1% −$59
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -14.6% -22.8% 57% 43% +4.1%
≤30d 9 -21.4% -28.9% 56% 33% -10.3%
≤90d 233 -8.0% -16.7% 43% 40% -6.9%
all 252 -8.9% -17.5% 40% 37% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 37% -9.2%
10% -25.4% 37% -17.9%
15% -32.6% 34% -25.9%
20% -39.2% 27% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$11 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$419
Realized+$915
Unrealized−$828
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses101 / 151
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)252 / 253
History coverage99d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 252 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 22¢ $1,247 $419 −$828 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $456 +$334 +73%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $144 −$144 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $72 −$72 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $163 +$53 +32%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $88 +$76 +86%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $84 +$5 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $88 −$86 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $198 −$196 -99%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? May 24 $180 +$18 +10%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $102 +$78 +76%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $6 +$2 +27%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-02? Apr 25 $5 $0 -5%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Apr 24 $7 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 7? Apr 19 $57 −$52 -91%
Will Alex Karaban win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament fo Apr 19 $222 −$222 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 19 $209 −$209 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 7? Apr 07 $25 −$6 -24%
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? Apr 07 $328 −$25 -8%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Apr 07 $251 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 06 $214 −$22 -10%
Will Trump say "TrumpRX" or "TrumpRX Dot Gov" in April? Apr 06 $184 −$65 -35%
Will Trump say "Left Behind" during Monday news conference? Apr 06 $15 −$3 -23%
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026? Apr 06 $1 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April Apr 06 $41 −$14 -33%
ChatGPT Outage by April 10? Apr 06 $190 −$30 -16%
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? Apr 06 $142 −$7 -5%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 31 to April Apr 06 $175 −$7 -4%
ChatGPT Outage by April 24? Apr 06 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 06 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin ETF Flows on April 6? Apr 06 $28 −$13 -47%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 31 to April Apr 05 $71 +$7 +10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 6? Apr 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 05 $72 $0 -1%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 05 $1 $0 +9%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 05 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 05 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 05 $9 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Apr 05 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,259 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $456 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $144 5d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 78¢ $72 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $163 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $88 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $89 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $84 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $88 6d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $198 27d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $197 27d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $180 35d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $180 35d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 56¢ $102 35d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 55d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 78¢ $6 56d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-02? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 56d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 57d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 62¢ $6 57d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $7 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $209 74d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 7? SELL No 37¢ $19 74d
Will Alex Karaban win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament fo BUY Yes 23¢ $11 74d
Will Alex Karaban win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament fo BUY Yes 23¢ $11 74d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 7? SELL No 60¢ $5 74d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 7? BUY No 60¢ $30 74d
Will Alex Karaban win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament fo BUY Yes 23¢ $12 74d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 7? BUY No 49¢ $25 74d
Will Alex Karaban win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament fo BUY Yes 23¢ $12 74d
Will Alex Karaban win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament fo BUY Yes 49¢ $24 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $418.69 · official $418.69 (match) · 840 history records