Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:20:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x128c…ad12 other 286 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 233d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$19,538 (+4%) realized +$19,324 · open +$214
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate52%149W / 136L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$1,945per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$10,698now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,246
7 days−$1,222
14 days+$330
30 days+$1,643
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$5,127
politics 27% +$3,198
world 14% +$172
culture 8% +$4,618
crypto 2% +$575
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -44.1% -49.4% 42% 8% -10.3%
≤30d 52 +68.4% +52.4% 58% 27% -8.7%
≤90d 143 +55.7% +40.9% 59% 31% -7.5%
all 285 +28.8% +16.6% 52% 29% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.6% 29% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here +5.4% 20% -16.2%
15% -4.8% 17% -24.3%
20% -14.1% 14% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$990) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +56% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$293 vs −$238 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$10,698
Realized+$19,324
Unrealized+$214
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses149 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)285 / 286
History coverage234d ⚠
Avg bet$1,945
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Jun 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? Jun 30 $981 −$981 -100%
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election by 27–30%? Jun 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? Jun 30 $364 −$364 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? Jun 30 $21 −$21 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 Jun 29 $12 −$6 -52%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 28 $132 +$17 +13%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 28 $2,294 +$99 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Jun 28 $292 +$9 +3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jun 28 $388 +$12 +3%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $125,445 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $11,976 +$24 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 20 $1,582 +$1,459 +92%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57.5 and 58 million views in wee Jun 20 $2 $0 -1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 57 million views in wee Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 19 $1,575 +$550 +35%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54.5 and 55 million views on day Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 55.5 million views on day Jun 19 $5 +$1 +32%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53.5 and 54 million views on day Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day Jun 18 $57 +$26 +47%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51.5 and 52 million views on day Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 17 $196 −$137 -70%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 47 million views on day 4? Jun 16 $638 +$5 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $1,224 +$291 +24%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51 and 52 million views on day 4 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $846 −$767 -91%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 16 $280 +$175 +62%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $1,418 +$136 +10%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $1,121 +$332 +30%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $50 −$23 -47%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $195 +$132 +68%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $353 +$8 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $3,434 +$158 +5%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $11 −$11 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63 and 63.5 million views in wee Jun 07 $97 +$11 +11%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 07 $2,843 +$348 +12%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 07 $3,952 +$286 +7%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 52 million views on day 4? Jun 04 $561 +$5 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 4 Jun 04 $3,225 +$15 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 46 million views on day 3? Jun 03 $531 +$5 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 3 Jun 03 $2,324 +$54 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3 Jun 02 $18 +$14 +77%
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 3? Jun 02 $90 +$8 +9%
between 37 and 39 million view Jun 02 $105 +$27 +25%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 61m? Jun 02 $2,068 +$23 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 01 $207 −$204 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 31 $271 +$53 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 43 and 44 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 12¢ $5 35m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 43 and 44 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 13¢ $5 43m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 43 and 44 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 95¢ $714 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 43 and 44 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 43 and 44 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 19¢ $128 3h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 92¢ $4 3h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 92¢ $88 3h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 BUY Yes $10 8h
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 43 million views on day 3? BUY No 92¢ $49 9h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 93¢ $28 10h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 93¢ $57 10h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 93¢ $9 10h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week BUY Yes $0 11h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week BUY Yes $0 11h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week BUY Yes $0 11h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week BUY Yes $0 11h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week BUY Yes $1 11h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week BUY Yes $0 11h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY No 94¢ $151 11h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week BUY Yes $0 12h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY No 94¢ $38 13h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 94¢ $327 14h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 94¢ $215 14h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week BUY Yes $0 15h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week BUY Yes $0 15h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week BUY Yes $0 15h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week BUY Yes $0 16h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week BUY Yes $0 16h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY No 98¢ $3,512 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,697.86 · official $10,697.86 (match) · 3500 history records