Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:03:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x128f…cee8 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$127 (-11%) realized −$128 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$148
7 days−$164
14 days−$156
30 days−$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$353
sports 21% +$90
crypto 3% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -32.7% -39.1% 50% 33% -28.6%
≤30d 13 -31.4% -37.9% 46% 38% -29.6%
≤90d 13 -31.4% -37.9% 46% 38% -29.6%
all 13 -31.4% -37.9% 46% 38% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.9% 38% -29.6%
10% -43.9% 23% -36.4%
15% -49.3% 23% -42.5%
20% -54.3% 15% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$57 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$128
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage14d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $47 $48 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $68 +$5 +7%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $31 −$25 -80%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $200 −$128 -64%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $26 +$4 +15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $16 +$10 +62%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $236 +$90 +38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $89 −$31 -34%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $348 −$161 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $48 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 90¢ $31 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 89¢ $68 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 19¢ $67 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $200 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $26 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $16 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 14d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $237 14d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $59 14d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 9¢ $59 14d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 13¢ $89 14d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 58¢ $89 14d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $177 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 31¢ $176 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $348 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.55 · official $47.55 (match) · 29 history records