Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:57:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x128f…5355 world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate39%13W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$4
other 19% $0
politics 16% +$1
sports 1% −$13
finance 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.2% -7.5% 60% 20% -9.0%
≤30d 23 -8.9% -17.6% 30% 4% -10.6%
≤90d 26 -7.9% -16.7% 35% 4% -9.9%
all 33 -9.0% -17.6% 39% 6% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 6% -10.8%
10% -25.5% 3% -19.3%
15% -32.7% 3% -27.1%
20% -39.3% 3% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage530d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $27 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +12%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $26 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $28 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $22 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $23 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $15 +$1 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $27 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $52 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $57 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $28 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $26 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $26 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $53 −$4 -7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $20 −$4 -21%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $6 −$1 -19%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 14 $238 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 13 $237 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 12 $260 +$1 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 09 $1 $0 +9%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $1 $0 +4%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will Andre Jackson Jr. win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Contest? Mar 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Utah Tech vs. Southern Utah Feb 14 $2 +$2 +100%
Denver vs. North Dakota Feb 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Jan 17 $4 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $27 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $27 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 10h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $23 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $3 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $26 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 81¢ $28 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $21 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $22 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $23 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $23 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $13 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $25 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $25 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $10 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $28 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $28 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $14 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $12 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.18 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records