Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:10:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
12 0x1291…bf1f sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$41 (+16%) realized −$48 · open +$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -8.7% -17.4% 0% 0% -17.4%
≤30d 3 -5.1% -14.2% 0% 0% -15.6%
≤90d 3 -5.1% -14.2% 0% 0% -15.6%
all 3 -5.1% -14.2% 0% 0% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 0% -15.6%
10% -22.4% 0% -23.6%
15% -29.9% 0% -31.0%
20% -36.8% 0% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$4 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$181
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$89
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage23d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group C Alpha Dominion Nation 44¢ 80¢ $62 $111 +$50 (+81%)
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Walczaki 43¢ 100¢ $30 $70 +$40 (+132%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) Jun 23 $101 −$9 -9%
Tiffon vs. Blanch: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $31 −$1 -3%
Mikrut vs. Feldbausch: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 02 $30 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 43¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 44¢ $62 6h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) BUY Walczaki 54¢ $101 21h
Tiffon vs. Blanch: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $31 16d
Mikrut vs. Feldbausch: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $30 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.98 · official $187.98 · 8 history records