Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:54:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
12 0x1293…e575 sports 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 281d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,657 (-36%) realized −$3,657 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%24W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$1,508
other 30% −$2,108
crypto 2% −$22
weather 2% −$15
politics 0% −$15
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -11.9% -20.3% 0% 0% -16.8%
≤30d 14 -11.9% -20.3% 0% 0% -16.8%
≤90d 51 -63.5% -66.9% 6% 6% -83.4%
all 73 -21.7% -29.2% 33% 32% -42.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 32% -42.0%
10% -35.9% 29% -47.6%
15% -42.1% 23% -52.6%
20% -47.8% 19% -57.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -82% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$134 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

281d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,657
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses24 / 49
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage281d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 22? Jun 22 $19 −$4 -22%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 22 $14 −$2 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $3 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 22? Jun 22 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 22 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 22? Jun 22 $34 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 22 $4 $0 -7%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 23? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -44%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? Jun 22 $7 −$2 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $26 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 22 $6 $0 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? Jun 22 $2 $0 -18%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 23? Jun 22 $17 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 22? Jun 22 $38 $0 -1%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 23 $568 −$568 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 22 $240 +$360 +150%
Bucks vs. Knicks May 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Borussia Dortmund vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw? May 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Marlins vs. Phillies May 21 $37 −$37 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on September 16? May 21 $62 −$62 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on September 23? May 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-11-01? May 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Wizards vs. Pacers May 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? May 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Northwestern vs. Penn State May 21 $138 −$138 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08? May 21 $92 −$92 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Islanders May 21 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Göztepe SK vs. Beşiktaş JK end in a draw? May 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Sharks vs. Jets May 21 $118 −$118 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10? May 21 $177 −$177 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 May 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2025-10-14? May 21 $93 −$93 -100%
Will PSV win on 2025-11-26? May 21 $278 −$278 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? May 21 $89 −$89 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-24? May 21 $246 −$246 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-17? May 21 $315 −$315 -100%
Magic vs. Timberwolves May 21 $290 −$290 -100%
Vanderbilt vs. Alabama May 21 $44 −$44 -100%
USC vs. Notre Dame May 21 $75 −$75 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-18? May 21 $215 −$215 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks May 21 $198 −$198 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-11? May 21 $380 −$380 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 May 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Pelicans vs. Suns May 21 $280 −$280 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-10? May 21 $389 −$389 -100%
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies May 21 $442 −$442 -100%
Knicks vs. Pacers May 21 $182 −$182 -100%
Suns vs. Raptors May 21 $573 −$573 -100%
Kings vs. Trail Blazers May 21 $897 −$897 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 20 $149 +$114 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 22? SELL Yes 48¢ $1 48m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 22? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 49m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL Yes 17¢ $9 50m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 22? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 51m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 22? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 53m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL Yes 17¢ $0 54m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 22? SELL No 73¢ $12 57m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 22? BUY No 73¢ $12 58m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 54¢ $5 59m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 22? SELL No 67¢ $33 59m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 22? BUY No 69¢ $34 59m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 55¢ $6 59m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 83¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 8¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 8¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 22¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 22¢ $3 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 23? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? SELL No 36¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 22? SELL No 46¢ $14 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 23? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 23? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? BUY No 46¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 22? BUY No 58¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 22? BUY No 58¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 22? SELL Yes 39¢ $19 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 207 history records