Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:15:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x1296…b21c other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 316d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$72 (-19%) realized −$71 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate19%6W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$24
14 days−$34
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$39
sports 15% −$50
politics 2% −$1
weather 1% −$3
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-64.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -33.1% -39.4% 36% 36% -19.1%
≤30d 13 -42.1% -47.7% 31% 31% -22.4%
≤90d 13 -42.1% -47.7% 31% 31% -22.4%
all 32 -61.1% -64.8% 19% 16% -35.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -64.8% 16% -35.3%
10% -68.2% 16% -41.5%
15% -71.2% 12% -47.1%
20% -74.1% 9% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -69% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$6 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

316d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$71
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses6 / 26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage316d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 55¢ 50¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $15 −$1 -9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $25 −$14 -56%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $36 +$25 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +51%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $26 −$1 -4%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$7 +27%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -91%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 −$6 -84%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $15 −$11 -74%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 89-90°F on Au Aug 17 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 319: Will Chimaev win by KO/TKO/DQ? Aug 17 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev Aug 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 87-88°F on Au Aug 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on Au Aug 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Rare Earth" during conference with Putin on August 15? Aug 16 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Trump say "Steve" or "Witkoff" during conference with Putin on Au Aug 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 525–549 times August 8–August 15? Aug 15 $6 $0 -1%
Will Trump say "Zelensky" during conference with Putin on August 15? Aug 15 $1 $0 -17%
Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 8 and 10 seconds? Aug 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 4 and 6 seconds? Aug 15 $2 $0 +5%
Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Saturday? Aug 14 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Taylor Swift say "Swiftie" 3+ times during Travis Kelce's podcast Aug 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Taylor Swift say "Kanye" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesd Aug 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Taylor Swift say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Travis Kelce's podc Aug 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $25 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $14 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 24¢ $11 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $9 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 96¢ $33 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 80¢ $27 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 86¢ $15 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 36h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $36 36h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 9¢ $1 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 90¢ $35 46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 85¢ $32 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $4 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 3¢ $1 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $7 9d
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Pimblett 11¢ $5 151d
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) SELL Pimblett 23¢ $4 151d
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Pimblett 59¢ $10 151d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor BUY Tate 87¢ $27 187d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor BUY Tate 87¢ $8 187d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.92 · official $32.92 (match) · 59 history records