Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:01:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
12 0x1296…01cc other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 428d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$172 (-12%) realized −$176 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate59%26W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$51
14 days+$30
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$41
sports 34% −$113
weather 8% −$110
crypto 3% −$23
world 3% −$21
politics 2% +$21
culture 1% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +11.9% +1.2% 92% 58% -1.7%
≤30d 20 -7.3% -16.2% 70% 50% -5.3%
≤90d 23 -11.1% -19.5% 65% 48% -7.5%
all 44 -11.9% -20.3% 59% 50% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 50% -22.4%
10% -27.9% 30% -29.8%
15% -34.9% 25% -36.6%
20% -41.3% 18% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$23 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

428d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$176
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses26 / 18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage428d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? No 98¢ 100¢ $71 $72 +$1 (+2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $8 +$3 (+59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $82 −$11 -13%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $73 +$9 +12%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $64 +$9 +14%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $53 +$11 +20%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $51 +$3 +5%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $43 +$1 +3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $44 +$6 +13%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $38 +$5 +12%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $36 +$2 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 +$5 +16%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $20 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 +$3 +14%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $15 −$15 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Mar 30 $5 +$5 +92%
Southern Miss vs. Georgia Southern Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challen Feb 03 $28 −$28 -100%
Sabres vs. Panthers Feb 03 $20 +$8 +41%
Tulane Green Wave vs. Memphis Tigers Feb 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 01 $40 +$28 +69%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 01 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: DetonatioN FocusMe vs Ground Zero Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Seas Feb 01 $45 +$13 +29%
Kraken vs. Golden Knights Feb 01 $30 +$9 +30%
Devils vs. Senators Feb 01 $25 +$15 +61%
California Baptist Lancers vs. UT Arlington Mavericks Feb 01 $20 +$9 +47%
LoL: Shifters vs Fnatic (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jan 31 $20 +$13 +65%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 31 $20 +$4 +20%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Commanders vs. Patriots Aug 09 $28 +$10 +37%
Delhi Capitals vs. Punjab Kings May 24 $43 −$43 -100%
Another Houthi strike on Israel before July? May 24 $11 $0 -2%
Will Trump say "Baby" this week? May 24 $22 +$21 +96%
Nuggets vs. Thunder May 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $15 +$20 +131%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 75-76°F on April 25? Apr 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on April 23? Apr 25 $87 −$87 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 98¢ $71 40m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 82¢ $71 41m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 94¢ $82 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 100¢ $82 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 89¢ $73 14h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 87¢ $64 21h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 83¢ $53 22h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $51 28h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $44 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 97¢ $43 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $43 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $38 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $36 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 86¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up $0 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $6 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 10d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $24 10d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 87¢ $21 10d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 10d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.10 · official $80.10 (match) · 93 history records