Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:13:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
12 0x1299…6277 other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,625 (+7%) realized +$1,851 · open +$1,774
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate67%22W / 11L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$1,144per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$8,551now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,552
7 days−$1,509
14 days−$1,236
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$4,332
other 46% −$2,356
politics 6% +$1,709
sports 0% −$204
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.9% -10.4% 64% 55% -19.0%
≤30d 22 -3.9% -13.1% 64% 45% -9.6%
≤90d 33 +9.7% -0.7% 67% 45% -5.8%
all 33 +9.7% -0.7% 67% 45% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 45% -5.8%
10% -10.2% 33% -14.8%
15% -18.9% 27% -23.0%
20% -26.8% 18% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$1,700) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +28% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$357 vs −$558 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$8,551
Realized+$1,851
Unrealized+$1,774
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses22 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)33 / 44
History coverage90d
Avg bet$1,144
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 62¢ 96¢ $3,100 $4,809 +$1,709 (+55%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $1,000 $1,006 +$6 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $578 $574 −$3 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $500 $508 +$8 (+2%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 86¢ 81¢ $500 $474 −$26 (-5%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 74¢ 94¢ $300 $381 +$81 (+27%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $300 $302 +$2 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $160 +$84 +52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $1,965 −$1,965 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $2,014 −$2,014 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,007 +$244 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,469 +$1,099 +75%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $402 +$80 +20%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,623 −$17 -1%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,085 +$729 +67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,006 +$201 +7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $433 +$251 +58%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $351 −$271 -77%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 13 $303 −$11 -4%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,715 +$515 +19%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $5,000 +$115 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 31 $5,129 +$455 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 29 $2,229 +$141 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $1,000 +$385 +38%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 25 $1,000 +$350 +35%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 24 $500 −$248 -50%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 11 $1,700 +$99 +6%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? May 05 $200 −$200 -100%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 01 $500 −$500 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? May 01 $743 +$110 +15%
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? Apr 28 $1,603 +$122 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 26 $926 +$380 +41%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $708 −$708 -100%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $1,000 +$5 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 08 $510 +$170 +33%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $600 +$899 +150%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $300 +$1,367 +456%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $217 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 86¢ $201 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $100 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $27 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,251 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $579 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $503 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,505 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,568 24h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 89¢ $502 45h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $608 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $60 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 56¢ $1,013 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $503 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $355 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 86¢ $502 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $601 5d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 74¢ $300 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 27¢ $961 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $503 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $503 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $502 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $502 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $507 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $203 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 99¢ $1,814 6d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 62¢ $609 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $170 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,551.37 · official $8,551.55 (match) · 122 history records