Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x129b…190a sports 1192 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,169 (-8%) realized −$2,157 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%600W / 587L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$162est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days−$424
14 days−$339
30 days−$704
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$989
other 45% −$1,478
crypto 2% +$68
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -14.7% -22.8% 50% 50% -32.2%
≤30d 134 -15.1% -23.2% 47% 47% -21.7%
≤90d 1187 -6.0% -15.0% 51% 49% -17.1%
all 1187 -6.0% -15.0% 51% 49% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 49% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 47% -25.0%
15% -30.5% 43% -32.3%
20% -37.3% 35% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$21 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized−$2,157
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses600 / 587
Est. fees paid−$162
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1187 / 1192
History coverage78d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 54¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
CR Brasil vs. Fortaleza EC: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 80¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+39%)
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-21? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-18? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 213 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$10 +103%
Spread: Raja Club Athletic (-1.5) Jun 21 $23 +$11 +49%
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Wydad Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$7 +70%
FathUnionSport vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$7 +71%
FathUnionSport vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 +$10 +50%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will RCA Zemamra win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
AS FAR vs. Kawkab AC: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Avaí FC vs. Cuiabá EC: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
IR Tanger vs. RCA Zemamra: RCA Zemamra O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$28 +55%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $101 +$23 +23%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $71 −$70 -99%
Spread: Vila Nova FC (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 +$13 +129%
Ceará SC vs. Botafogo FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Ceará SC vs. Botafogo FC: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$53 +53%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$9 +18%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +52%
CF Universidad de Chile leading at halftime? Jun 19 $10 +$15 +146%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? Jun 19 $10 +$4 +42%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +56%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 19 $20 +$15 +76%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Olympic Dcheira vs. AS FAR: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 +$4 +38%
Olympic Dcheira vs. AS FAR: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$7 +73%
US Yacoub El Mansour vs. HUS Agadir: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 +$13 +124%
Will US Yacoub El Mansour vs. HUS Agadir end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$2 +20%
Will RS Berkane vs. OC Safi end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $60 −$59 -98%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $99 +$61 +62%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $200 −$198 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $110 −$109 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 +$53 +52%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
RS Berkane leading at halftime? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
EC Juventude leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 +$8 +78%
EC Juventude vs. AA Ponte Preta: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 3h
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 3h
CR Brasil vs. Fortaleza EC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $10 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 50¢ $102 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 39¢ $20 4h
Will RCA Zemamra win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 6h
AS FAR vs. Kawkab AC: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $10 6h
Spread: Raja Club Athletic (-1.5) BUY COD Meknès 88¢ $10 6h
Spread: Raja Club Athletic (-1.5) BUY COD Meknès 56¢ $3 6h
Spread: Raja Club Athletic (-1.5) BUY COD Meknès 56¢ $10 6h
Avaí FC vs. Cuiabá EC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 7h
FathUnionSport vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $20 7h
Will HUS Agadir win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 7h
IR Tanger vs. RCA Zemamra: RCA Zemamra O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $10 7h
Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $10 7h
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Wydad Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $10 7h
FathUnionSport vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $10 7h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 85¢ $124 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $101 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $20 16h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $51 17h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 21¢ $20 17h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 20h
Spread: Vila Nova FC (-2.5) BUY Clube Náutico Capibaribe 43¢ $10 23h
Ceará SC vs. Botafogo FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 23h
Ceará SC vs. Botafogo FC: Draw at halftime? BUY No 53¢ $10 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 23h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 87¢ $155 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.98 · official $117.98 (match) · 2483 history records