Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:34:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12a0…ac1a politics 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 639d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%2W / 71L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$16
other 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 73 -0.6% -10.0% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

639d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses2 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage639d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $52 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $107 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $108 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $54 $0 +0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $54 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 28 $54 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 13 $54 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $54 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 24 $52 $0 +0%
Will Joel Embiid lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Paolo Banchero lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
OG Shoots vs. Easy Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Sturm Graz win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Chris Olave be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Jumper airdrop in 2024? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Trudeau no confidence motion passes in 2024? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Pump.fun airdrop in 2024? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Kyle Pitts be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Tether Insolvent in 2024? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Edwards win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Deandre Ayton lead the NBA in Rebounds? Dec 20 $0 $0 -1%
Will Travis Hunter win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Julius Randle lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will Kyler Murray win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will another player lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 09 $0 $0 -1%
Will Hoffenheim win the UEFA Europa League? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.35-1.39°C? Nov 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will Matt Eberflus be the next head coach fired? Nov 26 $0 $0 -6%
Will Beyonce be the Billboard #1 pop star of the century? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Brandon Aiyuk be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Nov 17 $0 $0 -5%
Matt Gaetz out as Congressman in 2024? Nov 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Emil Bove for Attorney General? Nov 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will A.J. Brown be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Nov 11 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 14h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 9d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 10d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 13d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 14d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 25d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 25d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $53 37d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $53 38d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 41d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 41d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 46d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 46d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $53 49d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $53 50d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $53 55d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $53 55d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $54 72d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $54 72d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $54 73d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 73d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 73d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 96¢ $54 81d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 96¢ $54 82d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 92d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 97d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 101d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 101d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $54 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 201 history records