Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:39:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12a0…530e crypto 169 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$103 (-6%) realized −$103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate61%103W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day56.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$128
other 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 169 -10.2% -18.8% 61% 59% -16.2%
≤30d 169 -10.2% -18.8% 61% 59% -16.2%
≤90d 169 -10.2% -18.8% 61% 59% -16.2%
all 169 -10.2% -18.8% 61% 59% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.8% 59% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 39% -24.3%
15% -33.7% 24% -31.6%
20% -40.2% 15% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses103 / 66
Open positions0
Markets (closed)169 / 169
History coverage5d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day56.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 169 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 -6%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$2 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$14 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$5 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 35h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 35h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 421 history records