Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:31:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
12 0x12a3…4538 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$128 (+10%) realized −$695 · open +$823
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,011now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$204
7 days−$349
14 days−$349
30 days−$349
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$194
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-59.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -34.9% -41.1% 33% 33% -67.7%
≤30d 3 -34.9% -41.1% 33% 33% -67.7%
≤90d 10 -54.7% -59.0% 30% 20% -70.1%
all 10 -54.7% -59.0% 30% 20% -70.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.0% 20% -70.1%
10% -62.9% 10% -72.9%
15% -66.5% 10% -75.5%
20% -69.8% 10% -77.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$105 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$1,011
Realized−$695
Unrealized+$823
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage72d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets 7¢ 38¢ $189 $1,011 +$823 (+435%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 21 $99 +$95 +95%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $299 −$299 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $147 −$145 -99%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $100 −$98 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 24 $50 −$49 -97%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 24 $147 −$34 -23%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 20 $50 −$49 -97%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $82 +$4 +5%
Suns vs. Lakers Apr 11 $60 −$59 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Apr 11 $57 +$5 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 8¢ $1 48m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 7¢ $193 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx SELL Washington Mystics 37¢ $194 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Washington Mystics 17¢ $53 2h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Washington Mystics 20¢ $46 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 7¢ $94 3h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 13¢ $205 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $147 6d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Nuggets 26¢ $100 58d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors BUY Cavaliers 8¢ $18 58d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors BUY Cavaliers 18¢ $32 58d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 19¢ $56 59d
Knicks vs. Hawks SELL Knicks 21¢ $109 59d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 17¢ $91 59d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Raptors 14¢ $50 62d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Trail Blazers 6¢ $32 62d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs SELL Trail Blazers 16¢ $84 62d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Trail Blazers 9¢ $50 62d
Suns vs. Lakers BUY Suns 24¢ $60 71d
Timberwolves vs. Rockets SELL Timberwolves 32¢ $61 71d
Timberwolves vs. Rockets BUY Timberwolves 29¢ $57 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,011.48 · official $1,011.48 (match) · 22 history records