Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:35:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12a8…7286 crypto 482 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$53 (+1%) realized +$73 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%241W / 240L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day25.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$257
7 days+$251
14 days+$229
30 days+$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$146
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 +3.1% -6.7% 61% 41% -3.3%
≤30d 380 -3.8% -13.0% 52% 43% -5.0%
≤90d 481 -5.1% -14.1% 50% 42% -6.3%
all 481 -5.1% -14.1% 50% 42% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 42% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 34% -15.2%
15% -29.8% 30% -23.4%
20% -36.7% 23% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized+$73
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses241 / 240
Open positions1
Markets (closed)481 / 482
History coverage32d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day25.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 481 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 97¢ 100¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 135 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $112 +$27 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $152 +$41 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $247 −$13 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $212 +$27 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $201 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $211 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $201 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $121 −$120 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$14 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $111 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $140 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $140 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $231 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $112 −$110 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $62 +$38 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$19 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$52 +490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $81 +$31 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $71 +$27 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $141 +$27 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$35 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $40 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $81 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.62 · official $151.68 · 1076 history records