trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -10.7% | -19.2% | 40% | 0% | -9.2% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -7.8% | -16.6% | 43% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -2.8% | -12.0% | 38% | 8% | -8.1% |
| all | 25 | -5.7% | -14.7% | 52% | 4% | -9.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.7% | 4% | -9.8% |
| 10% | -22.9% | 4% | -18.5% |
| 15% | -30.3% | 0% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -37.1% | 0% | -33.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $28 | $28 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | Jun 24 | $4 | −$1 | -36% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 24 | $81 | +$2 | +2% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 24 | $5 | −$1 | -24% |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 23 | $35 | +$2 | +5% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 23 | $57 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 26 | $18 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 26 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 26 | $46 | −$1 | -2% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 25 | $56 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 25 | $44 | −$8 | -17% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 24 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 24 | $5 | $0 | +8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | May 23 | $48 | +$15 | +30% |
| Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 15 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 20–27? | Dec 15 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? | Dec 15 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 03 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | May 07 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will Elena Lasconi advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof | Apr 23 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Browns draft Abdul Carter? | Apr 22 | $8 | $0 | -3% |
| Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? | Apr 21 | $8 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? | Apr 20 | $8 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 17 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week? | Mar 19 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 17 | $12 | −$2 | -17% |