Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:59:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
12 0x12aa…208f other 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%12W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$2
politics 18% −$4
sports 6% −$7
economics 4% −$1
world 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +4.0% -5.9% 14% 14% -9.0%
≤30d 18 +1.5% -8.2% 11% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 102 -1.9% -11.2% 12% 9% -9.6%
all 103 -1.8% -11.2% 12% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 9% -9.6%
10% -19.7% 9% -18.2%
15% -27.4% 7% -26.1%
20% -34.6% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses12 / 91
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage93d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $65 $66 +$0 (+0%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $182 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $12 +$4 +29%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $207 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $20 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $21 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $192 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $34 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $191 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $179 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 02 $73 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 31 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 24 $19 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $166 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $329 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 14 $330 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $337 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $162 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $288 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $318 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $156 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $343 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $169 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $158 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 02 $163 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $171 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $313 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $156 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 30 $174 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 28 $157 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $477 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $492 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $171 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $162 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $329 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $169 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $295 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $294 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $172 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $160 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 5h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 28h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 30h
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $26 4d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $26 4d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 4d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $12 5d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $20 5d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $20 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $65 9d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $28 10d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $28 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 17d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 17d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 18d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 19d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.22 · official $125.22 (match) · 330 history records