Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:29:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12ad…2fae crypto 295 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$30 (-3%) realized −$58 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate57%169W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$5
14 days−$28
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$58
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 217 -2.0% -11.3% 68% 61% -10.3%
≤30d 294 -5.7% -14.7% 57% 51% -15.1%
≤90d 294 -5.7% -14.7% 57% 51% -15.1%
all 294 -5.7% -14.7% 57% 51% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 51% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 38% -23.2%
15% -30.3% 26% -30.6%
20% -37.1% 14% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$58
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses169 / 125
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)294 / 295
History coverage24d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 294 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Down 84¢ 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-76%)
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Martin Landaluce 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 50m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $2 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.24 · official $0.33 (match) · 770 history records