Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:35:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
12 0x12af…ca65 crypto 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$84 (+10%) realized +$114 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate69%36W / 16L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% +$56
other 34% −$33
sports 31% +$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +27.2% +15.1% 69% 65% +12.7%
≤30d 52 +27.2% +15.1% 69% 65% +12.7%
≤90d 52 +27.2% +15.1% 69% 65% +12.7%
all 52 +27.2% +15.1% 69% 65% +12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.1% 65% +12.7%
10% +4.1% 63% +1.9%
15% -6.0% 60% -8.0%
20% -15.2% 52% -17.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$114
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses36 / 16
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 55
History coverage4d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Over 49¢ 30¢ $60 $36 −$24 (-40%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 36¢ 16¢ $11 $5 −$6 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $8 +$6 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $6 +$20 +325%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $100 +$52 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $17 −$6 -32%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $71 +$56 +79%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $81 −$80 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $13 +$23 +172%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$53 +52%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$4 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$8 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 57¢ $8 5h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $6 38h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 38h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 38h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $100 39h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY 38¢ $50 47h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $127 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 71¢ $81 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $71 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $13 3d
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 1 Brazil? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 65¢ $101 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $16 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.86 · official $40.86 (match) · 112 history records