Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:36:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
12 0x12b1…b851 sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,750 (+27%) realized +$4,266 · open −$516
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%10W / 27L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$351per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$309est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,507
7 days+$3,084
14 days+$3,067
30 days+$3,229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$4,169
other 20% −$1,564
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +30.9% +18.5% 38% 38% +16.7%
≤30d 25 +1.0% -8.6% 28% 28% +16.6%
≤90d 37 -10.8% -19.3% 27% 27% +14.8%
all 37 -10.8% -19.3% 27% 27% +14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 27% +14.8%
10% -27.0% 27% +3.8%
15% -34.1% 24% -6.2%
20% -40.5% 22% -15.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$541) neutral
Persistence
early -33% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$835 vs −$194 · ×4.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$1,106
Realized+$4,266
Unrealized−$516
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses10 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$309
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage76d
Avg bet$351
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert Simona Waltert 31¢ 32¢ $1,084 $1,104 +$20 (+2%)
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 15¢ 0¢ $538 $2 −$536 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 20 $554 −$541 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $997 −$978 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $821 +$194 +24%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $2,149 +$2,920 +136%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $1,534 +$616 +40%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 20 $1,105 +$1,255 +114%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt Jun 19 $553 −$541 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $841 −$827 -98%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $88 +$756 +864%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $549 −$467 -85%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $552 +$1,672 +303%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $554 −$545 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 19 $8 −$7 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $221 −$216 -98%
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen Jun 17 $111 −$109 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$98 -97%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $18 −$18 -97%
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta Jun 01 $135 −$123 -92%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $110 −$108 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $114 −$111 -98%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Circuit X Bas May 29 $124 −$122 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev May 29 $84 −$82 -97%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $15 −$15 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $222 +$732 +330%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Ameri May 28 $10 −$9 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 10 $8 −$8 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 04 $126 −$124 -98%
LoL: Estral Esports vs INTZ e-Sports (BO3) - Circuito Desafiante Playo May 04 $42 +$85 +203%
Valorant: WIP Esports vs F9 EICAR (BO3) - VCL France: Revolution Stage May 04 $21 −$20 -97%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Odys May 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Wuning: Yi Zhou vs Giles Hussey Apr 07 $49 −$47 -97%
Wuning: Fajing Sun vs Ethan Cook Apr 07 $40 −$39 -97%
Wuning: Maximus Jones vs Philip Sekulic Apr 07 $30 −$29 -98%
Dota 2: Satan666 vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast A Apr 07 $67 +$52 +78%
Wuning: Blake Ellis vs Justin Boulais Apr 07 $30 −$29 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $33 +$64 +194%
LoL: Team Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Group Stage Apr 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert BUY Simona Waltert 27¢ $545 45m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert BUY Simona Waltert 36¢ $561 49m
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 15¢ $552 51m
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Otto Virtanen 21¢ $554 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 35¢ $997 13h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 31¢ $1,016 13h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Minnesota Lynx 100¢ $5,069 13h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 42¢ $2,149 15h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 34¢ $2,151 15h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $821 15h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 23¢ $1,534 15h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty SELL Washington Mystics 46¢ $2,359 16h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY Washington Mystics 28¢ $553 17h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY Washington Mystics 17¢ $552 17h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt BUY Guido Justo 28¢ $553 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 44¢ $841 20h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Frances Tiafoe 99¢ $844 20h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 10¢ $88 21h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 3¢ $82 21h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniel Altmaier 99¢ $2,224 23h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 24¢ $552 26h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 47¢ $554 26h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $549 26h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed BUY SHISHKA 10¢ $8 28h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $221 2d
Alba Berlin vs. FC Bayern Munchen BUY Alba Berlin 26¢ $111 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $100 2d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Thijs Boogaard 10¢ $18 8d
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta SELL LOUD 3¢ $8 19d
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta BUY LOUD 25¢ $135 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,105.52 · official $1,105.52 (match) · 60 history records