Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:06:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12b2…7f5d other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$30 (-37%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -75% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -79% what you keep after slip
Net edge-79%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$25
crypto 31% +$6
sports 6% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-77.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -75.3% -77.7% 20% 20% -48.8%
≤30d 5 -75.3% -77.7% 20% 20% -48.8%
≤90d 5 -75.3% -77.7% 20% 20% -48.8%
all 5 -75.3% -77.7% 20% 20% -48.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -77.7% 20% -48.8%
10% -79.8% 20% -53.7%
15% -81.8% 0% -58.2%
20% -83.5% 0% -62.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -75% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 58¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$6 +23%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 17h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 18h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 19h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.31 · official $25.31 (match) · 9 history records