Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:39:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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12 0x12b3…e902 sports 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$48 (-2%) realized −$126 · open +$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%63W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$186
7 days−$60
14 days−$81
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$45
other 24% −$40
world 0% −$10
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -7.1% -15.9% 44% 44% -13.3%
≤30d 135 -6.8% -15.6% 47% 47% -13.3%
≤90d 135 -6.8% -15.6% 47% 47% -13.3%
all 135 -6.8% -15.6% 47% 47% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 47% -13.3%
10% -23.7% 46% -21.6%
15% -31.1% 44% -29.1%
20% -37.8% 39% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$13 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized−$126
Unrealized+$78
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses63 / 72
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions9
Markets (closed)135 / 144
History coverage10d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 100¢ $30 $67 +$37 (+122%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 33¢ 81¢ $20 $49 +$29 (+144%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Over 16¢ 52¢ $10 $32 +$22 (+222%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) New Zealand 56¢ 48¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 47¢ 62¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+31%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Over 57¢ 38¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) New Zealand 34¢ 22¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$13 +65%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $10 +$7 +73%
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $20 +$15 +73%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 +$12 +57%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $20 +$10 +50%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $10 +$30 +291%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $10 +$11 +109%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $10 +$8 +76%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $10 +$5 +52%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $30 +$15 +50%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 +$21 +101%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 25 $10 +$28 +276%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 +$9 +90%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $20 +$10 +50%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $20 +$22 +109%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $10 +$7 +73%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$17 +55%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $10 +$6 +62%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 +$6 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 16¢ $10 40m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 40m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 34¢ $10 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 56¢ $20 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $10 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $30 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $10 2h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $10 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 5h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $20 5h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $20 5h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 25¢ $10 9h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 57¢ $10 9h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 47¢ $10 9h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 16h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $20 16h
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $20 17h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 17h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $20 17h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $20 26h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $31 26h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 56¢ $10 28h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $10 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 28h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 25¢ $10 29h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $10 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 29h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 15¢ $2 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.36 · official $203.74 (match) · 232 history records