Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:41:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x12bc…bf2f
sports · 574 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$4,469 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,203 · open +$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$45
Realized−$1,203
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses414 / 169
Est. fees paid−$203
Open positions2
Markets (closed)583 / 574
History coverage25d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day130.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 583 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$278
7 days−$443
14 days−$848
30 days−$1,203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 59¢ 100¢ $26 $44 +$18 (+68%)
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner FlyQuest 89¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+13%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BIG 74¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+35%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner FUT Esports 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Winner EDward Gaming Youth Team 62¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner Ursa 58¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs Clair Obscur (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series#3 Group C Clair Obscur 21¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA 81¢ 0¢ $157 $0 −$157 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Group C RUSTEC 32¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs NRG (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A NRG 26¢ 0¢ $83 $0 −$83 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Astralis 54¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 41¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 2 Winner illwill 58¢ 0¢ $122 $0 −$122 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth - Game 1 Winner BNK FearX Youth 76¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN - Map 1 Winner BC.Game Esports 14¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 2 Winner M80 31¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner BIG 74¢ 0¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
LoL: Team Orange Gaming vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 3 Winner Team Orange Gaming 69¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Nemiga (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Finals Playoffs Nemiga 30¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP - Map 2 Winner Lynn Vision 10¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Frances Tiafoe 91¢ 0¢ $132 $0 −$132 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Monte 84¢ 0¢ $211 $0 −$211 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner B8 11¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Team Yandex 50¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Winthrop University 62¢ 0¢ $136 $0 −$136 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs NRG (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 14 $83 −$70 -84%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Falcons Force - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Team Orange Gaming vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $13 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$3 +77%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $35 −$21 -59%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $32 +$17 +54%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$2 +34%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $18 −$18 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$1 +18%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $11 −$11 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 +$3 +17%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $37 +$10 +26%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $55 +$8 +15%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $16 +$4 +23%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $63 +$5 +8%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $0 $0 -97%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $84 +$6 +7%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 +$38 +1513%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $36 +$3 +10%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $55 +$4 +8%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $21 +$9 +40%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $34 +$10 +29%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $26 +$4 +14%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $36 +$4 +11%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $19 −$19 -99%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $3 +$2 +81%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $16 +$14 +83%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $24 +$1 +6%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $38 +$2 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $29 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$892
crypto 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 56¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 58¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 58¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 11¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Leo Team 70¢ $5 4h
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili BUY Lorenzo Sonego 58¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 90¢ $6 4h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 90¢ $6 4h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 7¢ $1 4h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 91¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro SELL illwill 100¢ $49 4h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 59¢ $4 4h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 52¢ $4 4h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 51¢ $6 4h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 53¢ $3 4h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 50¢ $5 4h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 50¢ $5 4h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 58¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY illwill 83¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY illwill 87¢ $4 5h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY illwill 87¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY illwill 80¢ $4 5h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY illwill 77¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY illwill 74¢ $8 5h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY illwill 39¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY illwill 39¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 73¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 -0.8% -10.2% 72% 42% -18.0%
≤30d 583 +3.4% -6.5% 71% 50% -12.7%
≤90d 583 +3.4% -6.5% 71% 50% -12.7%
all 583 +3.4% -6.5% 71% 50% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover130.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 50% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 32% -21.0%
15% -23.6% 18% -28.7%
20% -31.1% 10% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.72 · official $44.16 (match) · 3500 history records