Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:51:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

12 0x12c1…8d4f other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d

COPY-WORTHYcopy this ⚠ Small sample

Total PnL +$505 (+16%) realized +$505 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +117% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +89% what you keep after slip

Net edge+89%after slip

Net WR77%break-even

Win rate77%20W / 6L

Drawdown4%max

Avg bet$84per market

Trades / day5.1pace

Fees−$21est.

Kalshi-fit45%portable

Net worth$250now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$1,369

7 days+$2,142

14 days+$2,142

30 days+$2,142

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

worth copying (survives realistic slippage)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +77%

net ROI/market (all)+96.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	26	+117.1%	+96.4%	77%	77%	+86.1%
≤30d	26	+117.1%	+96.4%	77%	77%	+86.1%
≤90d	26	+117.1%	+96.4%	77%	77%	+86.1%
all	26	+117.1%	+96.4%	77%	77%	+86.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+96.4%	77%	+86.1%
10%	+77.6%	77%	+68.3%
15%	+60.5%	77%	+52.0%
20%	+44.7%	77%	+37.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +106% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +117% · $-wt +106% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +124% → late +111% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$116 vs −$30 · ×3.88 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×12.93 per $1 lost it wins $12.93

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$250

Realized+$505

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)77%

Wins / losses20 / 6

Est. fees paid−$21

Open positions3

Markets (closed)26 / 38

History coverage10d

Avg bet$84

Trades / day5.1

Drawdown4%

Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 26 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	19¢	19¢	$100	$100	+$0 (+0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	52¢	52¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Canada be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	Yes	54¢	55¢	$50	$51	+$1 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$102	+$126	+124%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 25	$102	+$66	+65%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$102	−$79	-77%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$101	+$98	+97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on	Jun 25	$203	+$235	+115%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on	Jun 25	$51	+$41	+80%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND	Jun 25	$61	+$160	+261%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on	Jun 25	$51	+$120	+235%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$101	+$59	+58%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$169	+$257	+152%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$102	+$124	+122%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	Jun 24	$31	−$4	-14%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 23	$51	+$56	+109%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Algeria win	Jun 23	$51	+$112	+219%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Arg	Jun 23	$51	+$97	+191%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$51	+$49	+96%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND	Jun 23	$61	+$91	+149%
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$132	−$3	-2%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 23	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a d	Jun 23	$129	−$73	-57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$102	+$114	+112%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a	Jun 22	$51	+$300	+584%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi	Jun 21	$31	+$122	+398%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$101	+$63	+62%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$20	+$34	+165%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5)	BUY	51¢	$51	1h
Will Canada be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	BUY Yes	54¢	$51	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$101	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 20	BUY	40¢	$127	1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? AND	BUY	39¢	$102	7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	9¢	$23	8h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 202	BUY	49¢	$76	8h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	19¢	$102	8h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	44¢	$102	9h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	38¢	$102	9h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	39¢	$67	15h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY	50¢	$101	15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND	BUY	27¢	$61	15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on	BUY	47¢	$152	16h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	39¢	$102	19h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on	BUY	55¢	$51	23h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	SELL Colombia	27¢	$26	31h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	BUY Colombia	30¢	$31	31h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on	BUY	41¢	$51	32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on	BUY	29¢	$51	32h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY	44¢	$102	36h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? A	BUY	48¢	$102	2d
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	SELL	51¢	$129	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a d	SELL	3¢	$55	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a d	BUY	6¢	$129	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? A	BUY	45¢	$102	2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Croatia (-1.5) AND Will England wi	BUY	22¢	$82	2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	0¢	$6	2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	0¢	$3	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.89 · official $599.89 · 75 history records