Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:30:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
12 0x12c1…ddd6 other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$130 (+45%) realized +$130 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 25L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$6
sports 48% +$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +10.0% -0.5% 31% 31% +41.2%
≤30d 36 +10.0% -0.5% 31% 31% +41.2%
≤90d 36 +10.0% -0.5% 31% 31% +41.2%
all 36 +10.0% -0.5% 31% 31% +41.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.5% 31% +41.2%
10% ← realistic here -10.0% 31% +27.7%
15% -18.7% 28% +15.4%
20% -26.7% 22% +4.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late +82% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$4 · ×5.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 25
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)36 / 41
History coverage2d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $0 $0 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 +$14 +67%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $16 +$17 +105%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$14 +276%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 +$37 +712%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $5 +$42 +808%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 +$53 +473%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $23 −$23 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$7 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$3 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $7 +$12 +165%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $29 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $16 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 4h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 9h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 9h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 9h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $7 9h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 9h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 46¢ $47 10h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 11h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $5 11h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $5 11h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 11h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $16 11h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 12h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 12h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $21 12h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $23 18h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 18h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.78 · official $59.78 (match) · 68 history records