Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:31:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
12 0x12c3…b054 sports 612 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,501 (-3%) realized −$3,472 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%286W / 324L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$5,187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,642
7 days+$3,642
14 days+$3,642
30 days+$2,301
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$228
sports 32% −$4,149
other 22% +$3,112
politics 4% −$21
weather 1% −$382
tech 1% −$41
world 0% −$10
finance 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +15.7% +4.7% 50% 50% +18.5%
≤30d 5 -7.4% -16.2% 40% 40% +6.4%
≤90d 5 -7.4% -16.2% 40% 40% +6.4%
all 610 -0.9% -10.3% 47% 41% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 41% -11.0%
10% -18.9% 37% -19.5%
15% -26.7% 33% -27.3%
20% -33.9% 27% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +43% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$75 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$5,187
Realized−$3,472
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses286 / 324
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions1
Markets (closed)610 / 612
History coverage141d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 610 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance France 89¢ 88¢ $5,216 $5,187 −$29 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $2,914 +$2,314 +79%
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Jun 29 $6,513 −$170 -3%
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 29 $268 −$264 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $2,046 +$1,761 +86%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,360 −$1,340 -98%
Heat vs. Pacers Mar 29 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026? Mar 29 $12 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 29 $113 +$42 +37%
Will Tim Greimel be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10? Mar 29 $151 −$35 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 28 $81 −$80 -99%
Bulls vs. Thunder Mar 28 $58 +$24 +41%
Clippers vs. Pacers Mar 28 $31 +$26 +85%
Hawks vs. Celtics Mar 28 $31 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 23? Mar 24 $2 +$29 +1900%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 22? Mar 22 $31 +$139 +449%
Will Tisza win at least 110 seats? Mar 22 $98 −$6 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on March 21? Mar 21 $6 +$20 +334%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 21? Mar 21 $14 +$28 +202%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Mar 20 $135 +$47 +34%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 13 to Mar Mar 20 $40 +$50 +125%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 20? Mar 20 $561 −$503 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 20? Mar 20 $150 +$13 +8%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Mar 20 $300 +$65 +22%
Lakers vs. Heat Mar 20 $100 −$9 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C or higher on March 23? Mar 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Mar 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Will CD win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Repr Mar 19 $3,088 +$55 +2%
South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals Mar 19 $130 +$58 +45%
Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Troy Trojans vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers Mar 19 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-03-19? Mar 19 $1,127 +$386 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or higher on March 21? Mar 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 20? Mar 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 21? Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 20? Mar 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 22? Mar 19 $8 −$8 -100%
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. Utah Valley Wolverines Mar 19 $65 +$76 +116%
Bradley Braves vs. Dayton Flyers Mar 19 $75 +$66 +88%
UIC Flames vs. California Golden Bears Mar 19 $130 +$63 +49%
The Citadel Bulldogs vs. Wofford Terriers Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Wild vs. Golden Knights Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Maine Black Bears vs. New Hampshire Wildcats Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Buffalo Bulls Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-02-21? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Furman Paladins vs. Western Carolina Catamounts Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Heat vs. Hawks Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
St. Francis (PA) Red Flash vs. New Haven Chargers Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-02-15? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance BUY France 89¢ $5,234 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 55¢ $2,914 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? SELL Yes 77¢ $2,919 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $2,997 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? AND Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY 45¢ $429 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? SELL Yes 77¢ $3,425 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $3,517 8h
France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance SELL France 88¢ $3,519 8h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 39¢ $268 9h
France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance SELL France 89¢ $268 9h
France vs. Sweden: Team to Advance BUY France 88¢ $3,812 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $2,046 26h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $1,360 14d
Heat vs. Pacers BUY Heat 74¢ $154 91d
Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $6 92d
Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $7 92d
Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 92d
Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $4 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $155 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $113 92d
Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 92d
Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 92d
Will Tim Greimel be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10? SELL Yes 17¢ $35 92d
Will Tim Greimel be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10? SELL No 77¢ $81 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $81 93d
Bulls vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 71¢ $58 93d
Clippers vs. Pacers SELL Pacers 74¢ $58 93d
Clippers vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 40¢ $31 93d
Hawks vs. Celtics SELL Hawks 49¢ $31 93d
Hawks vs. Celtics BUY Hawks 48¢ $31 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,187.19 · official $5,609.21 · 1723 history records