Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:38:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12c3…d1d8 world 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate35%18W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$3
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$4
other 31% −$1
sports 11% −$12
politics 11% $0
economics 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.3% -10.7% 38% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 19 +0.7% -8.9% 42% 11% -9.2%
≤90d 51 -2.3% -11.6% 35% 6% -9.4%
all 52 -4.2% -13.3% 35% 6% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 6% -10.0%
10% -21.6% 0% -18.6%
15% -29.2% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses18 / 34
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)52 / 55
History coverage491d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 93¢ 92¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 22¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-34%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $92 +$5 +6%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $49 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $3 $0 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $8 $0 -5%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $38 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $20 $0 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $14 −$2 -13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $18 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $96 −$6 -7%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $19 +$3 +16%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $22 +$3 +13%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $47 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $47 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $12 $0 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $20 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 18 $34 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 18 $2 $0 -16%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 18 $47 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $130 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $2 $0 -8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $121 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $45 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 12 $40 $0 +0%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $38 +$1 +3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $2 $0 -6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 07 $3 $0 +15%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $30 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Apr 01 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Mar 31 $8 −$1 -9%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $44 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 29 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 29 $2 $0 -2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $48 $0 -0%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Mar 27 $43 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 27 $48 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 50¢ $48 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $49 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $49 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $49 7h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 55¢ $7 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 55¢ $28 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 55¢ $14 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $43 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $17 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $18 23h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $38 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $38 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $39 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $38 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $12 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 31¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 28¢ $6 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 28¢ $6 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $3 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $11 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 36¢ $16 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $14 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.75 · official $0.29 (match) · 204 history records