Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:25:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x12c8…3cb0
other · 87 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$62 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$65 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$84
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses14 / 56
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions17
Markets (closed)70 / 87
History coverage79d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%
Chart Positions 17 History 70 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 53¢ 52¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? No 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Netherlands 91¢ 90¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will US Yacoub El Mansour win on 2026-06-14? No 69¢ 81¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+17%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 88¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? No 85¢ 84¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 83¢ 84¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Tunisia 76¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-14? No 63¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 60¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will AS FAR win on 2026-06-14? No 55¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 30¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Under 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Under 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Bolivia 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Under 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? No 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 14 $8 $0 -1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $4 $0 -2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $2 $0 -8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $8 $0 -2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $11 +$15 +133%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$3 +158%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 −$1 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $4 −$1 -13%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $4 $0 -6%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 12 $4 −$1 -15%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 -8%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $3 $0 -7%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 12 $10 $0 -2%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $15 +$22 +143%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 −$9 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $13 $0 +0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 12 $26 −$25 -96%
James Comey arrested by May 15? Apr 29 $1 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 24 to Mar Mar 31 $17 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in March 2026? Mar 31 $7 −$3 -45%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 24 to Mar Mar 31 $1 +$2 +190%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% −$2
sports 16% −$3
politics 11% +$1
economics 10% $0
crypto 9% −$50
finance 5% −$10
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $5 3m
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 91¢ $5 11m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 85¢ $4 18m
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $4 22m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $2 25m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 28m
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $3 29m
Will US Yacoub El Mansour win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 68¢ $3 30m
Will US Yacoub El Mansour win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $4 30m
Will AS FAR win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $3 30m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 60¢ $3 34m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 39m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 83¢ $4 48m
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 76¢ $4 55m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $2 56m
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 91¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $3 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 96¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $3 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 96¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 38¢ $8 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 47¢ $2 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 87¢ $4 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 29¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -15.4% -23.5% 21% 14% -10.7%
≤30d 43 -15.4% -23.5% 21% 14% -10.7%
≤90d 70 -12.5% -20.8% 20% 10% -17.5%
all 70 -12.5% -20.8% 20% 10% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 10% -17.5%
10% -28.4% 9% -25.4%
15% -35.3% 9% -32.6%
20% -41.6% 9% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.03 · official $84.03 (match) · 229 history records