Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:16:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12cc…3587 sports 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$580 (-11%) realized −$564 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate58%31W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$369
7 days−$234
14 days−$234
30 days−$464
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$91
other 23% +$54
world 10% −$456
politics 7% −$231
crypto 3% −$45
economics 3% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -17.2% -25.1% 60% 45% -16.8%
≤30d 22 -23.5% -30.8% 55% 41% -22.8%
≤90d 23 -19.5% -27.1% 57% 43% -22.3%
all 53 -8.6% -17.3% 58% 43% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 43% -19.9%
10% -25.2% 30% -27.5%
15% -32.4% 21% -34.5%
20% -39.0% 15% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$80 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$564
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses31 / 22
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage176d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $150 $134 −$16 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 28 $170 −$130 -77%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 28 $387 +$178 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 27 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$20 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 27 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 27 $50 +$2 +4%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $173 −$171 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $501 −$469 -94%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 27 $243 +$101 +41%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $234 +$158 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $200 +$9 +4%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 26 $85 +$51 +60%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 25 $337 +$237 +70%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 24 $136 −$136 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 23 $122 +$82 +67%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $18 +$3 +14%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum May 31 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Iain Black win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia le May 31 $274 −$132 -48%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 06 $20 +$14 +69%
Warriors vs. Jazz Mar 10 $44 −$40 -92%
Senators vs. Canucks Mar 10 $20 −$12 -59%
Rangers vs. Flyers Mar 09 $20 −$13 -64%
Jets vs. Ducks Feb 27 $88 −$4 -4%
Devils vs. Penguins Feb 27 $50 +$36 +72%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Jan 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Islanders Jan 04 $192 −$115 -60%
Jets vs. Senators Jan 04 $95 +$22 +23%
Alabama A&M Bulldogs vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions Jan 04 $90 +$5 +5%
Sabres vs. Blue Jackets Jan 04 $42 +$23 +55%
Lightning vs. Sharks Jan 03 $62 −$1 -2%
Flyers vs. Oilers Jan 03 $2 $0 -2%
Penguins vs. Red Wings Jan 03 $44 +$4 +8%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $55 +$9 +17%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jan 03 $55 $0 +0%
Will CA Osasuna vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Jan 03 $41 +$14 +34%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $157 −$116 -74%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $139 +$18 +13%
Will Genoa CFC vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? Jan 03 $132 +$7 +5%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Parma Calcio 1913 end in a draw? Jan 03 $93 +$39 +42%
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $91 +$2 +2%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $170 −$79 -47%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $131 +$39 +30%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $19 +$3 +17%
Brisbane International, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Filip Misolic Jan 03 $17 +$2 +10%
Counter-Strike: DEPO vs Omega (BO3) Jan 03 $18 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Athletics 15¢ $40 15m
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 62¢ $170 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 96¢ $565 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 5h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $387 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 6h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 62¢ $173 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes $7 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes $25 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 95¢ $501 23h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $343 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $234 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $209 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 96¢ $200 31h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $243 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.93 · official $133.93 (match) · 157 history records