Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:42:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
12 0x12ce…de4a politics 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 171d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$827 (-38%) realized −$832 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$311per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$168
7 days−$168
14 days−$168
30 days−$610
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 88% −$606
world 12% −$264
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-52.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -33.7% -40.0% 0% 0% -40.0%
≤30d 2 -40.2% -45.9% 0% 0% -47.8%
≤90d 2 -40.2% -45.9% 0% 0% -47.8%
all 6 -47.1% -52.1% 0% 0% -52.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.1% 0% -52.0%
10% -56.7% 0% -56.6%
15% -60.9% 0% -60.8%
20% -64.7% 0% -64.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$146 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$315
Realized−$832
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage171d
Avg bet$311
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $310 $315 +$5 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 26 $498 −$168 -34%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $945 −$442 -47%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 18 $144 −$144 -100%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 18 $57 −$1 -2%
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? Feb 10 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 26 $100 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $254 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $36 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $16 1h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $331 1h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $478 29d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 29d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 29d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 4¢ $503 29d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 7¢ $945 65d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $144 127d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL Yes 5¢ $56 127d
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $46 136d
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 136d
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 136d
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 136d
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 136d
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 136d
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 136d
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 136d
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 136d
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 136d
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 136d
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $48 136d
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.00 · official $315.00 (match) · 34 history records