Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:10:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12d0…af2e crypto 329 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d only
✗ bot/MM pace (820 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$414 (-13%) realized −$416 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%143W / 185L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day820.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$541
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (820 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 328 -17.8% -25.7% 44% 39% -25.0%
≤30d 328 -17.8% -25.7% 44% 39% -25.0%
≤90d 328 -17.8% -25.7% 44% 39% -25.0%
all 328 -17.8% -25.7% 44% 39% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover820.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.7% 39% -25.0%
10% ← realistic here -32.8% 32% -32.2%
15% -39.3% 22% -38.8%
20% -45.2% 15% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$416
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses143 / 185
Open positions1
Markets (closed)328 / 329
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day820.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 328 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Down 65¢ 74¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$6 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$6 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$13 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$7 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$6 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$7 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$6 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$11 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$7 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$6 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$9 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$3 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$3 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$5 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $0 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.53 · official $10.60 (match) · 3500 history records