Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:46:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x12d6…f2a8
world · 53 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$809,701 +61%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$218,767 · open +$2,968
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$135,814
Realized−$218,767
Unrealized+$2,968
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses25 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions49
Markets (closed)43 / 53
History coverage15d
Avg bet$25,030
Trades / day232.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 49 History 43 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55,428
7 days−$56,127
14 days−$54,691
30 days−$218,767
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 55¢ 80¢ $44,831 $64,906 +$20,075 (+45%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $40,644 $41,391 +$747 (+2%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 41¢ 18¢ $29,069 $13,186 −$15,882 (-55%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 46¢ 99¢ $1,933 $4,137 +$2,204 (+114%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $1,680 $1,790 +$110 (+7%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $1,571 $1,590 +$19 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 32¢ 38¢ $1,320 $1,564 +$245 (+19%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 28¢ 24¢ $1,796 $1,504 −$293 (-16%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 36¢ $1,750 $1,445 −$305 (-17%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Yes 70¢ 71¢ $788 $799 +$11 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $624 $665 +$41 (+7%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 68¢ 98¢ $321 $464 +$144 (+45%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 76¢ 95¢ $365 $456 +$91 (+25%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 41¢ 6¢ $2,489 $391 −$2,098 (-84%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 28¢ 30¢ $337 $373 +$36 (+11%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $269 $291 +$22 (+8%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $224 $224 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 74¢ 77¢ $166 $172 +$6 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 24¢ 16¢ $172 $118 −$54 (-31%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 85¢ 90¢ $88 $93 +$5 (+5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? No 29¢ 30¢ $58 $59 +$1 (+2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $27 $55 +$28 (+101%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $36 $40 +$4 (+10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 28¢ 23¢ $13 $10 −$2 (-19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 24¢ 56¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+135%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $132 −$250 -189%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? Jun 14 $32,520 −$49,216 -151%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? Jun 14 $8,420 −$13,175 -156%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 14 $132 −$71 -54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? Jun 14 $617 −$744 -120%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Jun 14 $64 +$6,889 +10843%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 14 $18 −$17 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? Jun 14 $207 −$320 -154%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 14 $361 −$26,695 -7402%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? Jun 14 $101 −$39 -38%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? Jun 14 $207 +$755 +365%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? Jun 14 $314 −$183 -58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $62,429 +$10,596 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $4,051 +$640 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $1,084 +$480 +44%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $1,968 +$313 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $2,890 +$38 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $3,422 +$5,932 +173%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $8,349 +$9,646 +116%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $999 +$13 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $6,948 +$372 +5%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 10 $26,782 +$1,511 +6%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $530,771 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $5,393 +$793 +15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $466 +$326 +70%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 09 $2,979 +$367 +12%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $6,134 −$335 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $7,535 −$6,877 -91%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $16,060 +$217 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $28,643 −$238 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $5,054 +$3,151 +62%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $167 +$14 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 06 $1,214 +$565 +47%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 06 $1,187 +$304 +26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $9,928 +$157 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 05 $1,346 −$991 -74%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $1,340 +$396 +30%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,995 +$1,005 +25%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $44 +$2,045 +4607%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $74,440 −$55,155 -74%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $511 +$55,044 +10774%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $77,677 −$166,011 -214%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 47% +$34,614
politics 41% −$335
other 12% −$222,772
finance 1% +$723
tech 0% +$13
sports 0% +$55,044
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY No 29¢ $58 43m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $2,022 45m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 65¢ $1,456 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 86¢ $181 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 54¢ $605 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 55¢ $616 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $153 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $1,568 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $37 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $31 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $359 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $328 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $82 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $10 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $792 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $75 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $7 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $910 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $0 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $4 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $1 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $0 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $4 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $0 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $4 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $0 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $1 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $82 12h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL No 46¢ $1,564 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+139.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +98.7% +79.8% 55% 42% -11.1%
≤30d 43 +164.8% +139.6% 58% 47% -23.1%
≤90d 43 +164.8% +139.6% 58% 47% -23.1%
all 43 +164.8% +139.6% 58% 47% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover232.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +139.6% 47% -23.1%
10% +116.7% 37% -30.4%
15% ← realistic here +95.7% 28% -37.1%
20% +76.5% 23% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135,814.44 · official $135,813.57 (match) · 3500 history records