Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:31:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12d8…7b0f sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$131 (-7%) realized −$131 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$25
14 days−$88
30 days−$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +20.0% +8.6% 67% 67% +10.4%
≤30d 15 -12.9% -21.2% 47% 47% -18.0%
≤90d 15 -12.9% -21.2% 47% 47% -18.0%
all 15 -12.9% -21.2% 47% 47% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 47% -18.0%
10% -28.8% 47% -25.8%
15% -35.7% 47% -33.0%
20% -42.0% 40% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$94 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage14d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur Jun 28 $14 +$8 +56%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $61 +$49 +80%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $41 −$31 -76%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $121 +$134 +111%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $213 −$190 -89%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $225 +$112 +50%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $288 −$28 -10%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $245 −$241 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $31 −$8 -27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $358 +$251 +70%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $79 −$79 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $31 +$21 +67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $174 −$103 -59%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $32 +$18 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $73 −$72 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur SELL Yellow Submarine 10¢ $1 41m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur SELL Yellow Submarine 10¢ $12 41m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur SELL Yellow Submarine 9¢ $8 43m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 3¢ $0 50m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 3¢ $2 50m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 3¢ $0 50m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 3¢ $0 51m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 5¢ $2 55m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 5¢ $0 56m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 8¢ $2 57m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 9¢ $3 59m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 11¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 90¢ $33 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 86¢ $31 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 82¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 82¢ $17 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 80¢ $26 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 34¢ $14 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 46¢ $23 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 61¢ $24 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 5¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 12¢ $10 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 23¢ $12 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 28¢ $20 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $171 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 47¢ $48 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $9 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $13 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 55¢ $37 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $17 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 188 history records