Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:24:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12dc…9832 sports 162 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$841 (-27%) realized −$810 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%47W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$1,801
14 days−$1,581
30 days−$1,446
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$625
other 15% −$284
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 -90.3% -91.2% 4% 4% -88.9%
≤30d 133 -54.8% -59.1% 17% 16% -64.5%
≤90d 160 -24.8% -32.0% 29% 28% -35.8%
all 160 -24.8% -32.0% 29% 28% -35.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 28% -35.8%
10% -38.5% 28% -41.9%
15% -44.4% 27% -47.5%
20% -49.9% 25% -52.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -93% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$17 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$810
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses47 / 113
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)160 / 162
History coverage63d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 23¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $54 −$53 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $15 +$12 +79%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $19 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Map Handicap: GM (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Game Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-25.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs Movistar KOI (+2.5) Jun 16 $17 −$8 -46%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoff Jun 16 $41 +$36 +88%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp Blue (+1.5) Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5) Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 23¢ $32 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $26 45h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $27 47h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $27 47h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Vitality 43¢ $14 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $15 2d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 48¢ $19 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $11 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $14 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Spread: Norway (-2.5) AND Spread: Argentina BUY 5¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $15 6d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 30¢ $5 6d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 54¢ $19 6d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 27¢ $6 6d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $16 6d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $6 6d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $1 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $14 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $19 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $16 7d
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) SELL Galions 100¢ $49 7d
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) BUY Galions 67¢ $33 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 58¢ $57 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $39 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 23¢ $7 7d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 33¢ $10 8d
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $26 8d
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 8d
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $19 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.07 (match) · 384 history records