Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:14:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x12de…bb0f
sports · 69 markets active 2h ago
4.0score
+$690 +24%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$691 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$221
Realized+$691
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses31 / 34
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions4
Markets (closed)65 / 69
History coverage27d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 4 History 65 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$171
7 days+$52
14 days−$92
30 days+$691
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ 60¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 47¢ 50¢ $42 $45 +$2 (+5%)
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Pittsburgh Pirates 43¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 44¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Hurricanes 65¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) Zverev 69¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Golden Knights 86¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva Vit Kopriva 55¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 58¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Thunder 41¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Will Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Pohang Steelers FC end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Pistons 54¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 47¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Spurs 52¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will FK Rukh Lviv vs. FK Oleksandriya end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 61¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 50¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $240 $0 −$240 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik Mariano Navone 48¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics Athletics 58¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 61¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$127 +249%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $39 +$24 +62%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. LG Twins Jun 11 $30 +$20 +65%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $29 +$18 +62%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $25 +$18 +70%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $61 −$60 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $62 +$54 +86%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 09 $41 −$41 -98%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $16 +$13 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $51 +$28 +56%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) Jun 07 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 05 $61 −$60 -99%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 05 $56 +$34 +60%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 04 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 04 $30 +$30 +97%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 04 $31 −$30 -98%
Birmingham: Billy Harris vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 04 $30 +$25 +83%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 03 $41 −$40 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $30 −$30 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $30 −$30 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $35 +$27 +76%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $77 −$76 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $25 +$19 +76%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) May 28 $15 −$15 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva May 28 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 28 $30 +$32 +105%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 27 $42 +$23 +55%
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) May 27 $61 +$62 +101%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 27 $30 +$30 +97%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 27 $35 +$28 +79%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik May 27 $20 −$20 -98%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 27 $39 +$35 +90%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 25 $36 −$35 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $41 −$40 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $61 −$60 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 24 $35 −$35 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 23 $35 −$35 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $20 +$22 +109%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $61 +$25 +40%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $243 −$240 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $26 +$5 +20%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 21 $25 +$14 +57%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 20 $30 +$24 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 80% −$380
other 16% +$1,180
world 4% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $178 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $61 7h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 7h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $43 8h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 21h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $39 35h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 36h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. LG Twins SELL LG Twins 100¢ $50 36h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 60¢ $30 42h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ $20 2d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 61¢ $29 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 58¢ $25 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $61 2d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $62 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 52¢ $51 3d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $41 3d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 55¢ $16 4d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 48¢ $25 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $25 4d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) BUY Zverev 69¢ $19 5d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 53¢ $41 7d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) BUY Zverev 58¢ $26 7d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 86¢ $50 7d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $20 8d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 44¢ $31 8d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 50¢ $30 8d
Birmingham: Billy Harris vs Yunchaokete Bu BUY Yunchaokete Bu 54¢ $30 9d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $41 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 50% -1.0%
≤30d 65 +4.6% -5.3% 48% 48% +14.3%
≤90d 65 +4.6% -5.3% 48% 48% +14.3%
all 65 +4.6% -5.3% 48% 48% +14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 48% +14.3%
10% -14.4% 46% +3.4%
15% -22.7% 46% -6.6%
20% -30.2% 45% -15.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.26 · official $221.26 (match) · 124 history records