Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:53:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12de…9b90 crypto 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9 (-2%) realized −$20 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate50%24W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day84.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -19.3% -27.0% 50% 35% -15.2%
≤30d 48 -19.3% -27.0% 50% 35% -15.2%
≤90d 48 -19.3% -27.0% 50% 35% -15.2%
all 48 -19.3% -27.0% 50% 35% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.0% 35% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -34.0% 25% -23.3%
15% -40.4% 15% -30.7%
20% -46.2% 6% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses24 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage3d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day84.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 0¢ 46¢ $0 $11 +$11 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +149%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$10 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$5 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$2 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$8 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$10 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$11 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$6 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$10 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $59 −$9 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$4 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$4 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$7 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$2 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $6 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $7 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $5 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $13 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $6 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $7 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $8 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $7 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.96 · official $11.92 (match) · 224 history records