Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:02:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0x12df…6a3d

crypto · 29 markets active 17h ago

0.0score

−$533 -34%

TOTAL PnL · realized −$41 · open −$492

avoidriskycopy

~ RISKY crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Net worth$610

Realized−$41

Unrealized−$492

Win rate (resolved)36%

Wins / losses8 / 14

Open positions7

Markets (closed)22 / 29

History coverage6d

Avg bet$55

Trades / day14.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit83%

Chart Positions 7 History 22 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$52

7 days−$41

14 days−$41

30 days−$41

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	32¢	32¢	$512	$504	−$8 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14?	Yes	7¢	2¢	$150	$33	−$117 (-78%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17?	No	8¢	3¢	$80	$32	−$48 (-61%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?	Yes	12¢	5¢	$60	$26	−$33 (-56%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14?	No	13¢	1¢	$255	$15	−$240 (-94%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at least $250?	Yes	2¢	4¢	$0	$0	+$0 (+76%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12?	No	15¢	0¢	$46	$0	−$46 (-100%)
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?	No	0¢	0¢	$38	$0	−$38 (-100%)
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026?	No	0¢	0¢	$8	$0	−$8 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9?	No	0¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-100%)
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?	No	0¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8?	No	6¢	0¢	$21	$0	−$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6?	Down	8¢	0¢	$10	$0	−$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	1¢	0¢	$5	$0	−$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	29¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	8¢	0¢	$3	$0	−$3 (-100%)
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?	No	0¢	0¢	$7	$0	−$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	50¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-100%)
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	0¢	0¢	$17	$0	−$17 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	No	0¢	0¢	$52	$0	−$52 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7?	No	4¢	0¢	$120	$0	−$120 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	Jun 10	$52	−$52	-100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?	Jun 09	$6	−$1	-18%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Jun 09	$18	−$17	-96%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	Jun 09	$96	+$40	+42%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026?	Jun 09	$8	−$8	-100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?	Jun 09	$7	−$7	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Jun 09	$1	+$3	+252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Jun 09	$5	−$5	-94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9?	Jun 09	$2	−$2	-94%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?	Jun 08	$39	−$38	-97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8?	Jun 07	$22	−$21	-94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7?	Jun 07	$128	−$120	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6?	Jun 06	$66	+$175	+267%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10?	Jun 06	$2	$0	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Jun 05	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Jun 05	$2	+$1	+64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Jun 05	$2	−$2	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Jun 05	$3	−$3	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Jun 05	$2	−$2	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Jun 05	$1	$0	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Jun 05	$3	+$9	+271%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Jun 05	$4	+$10	+245%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

crypto 88% −$488

other 8% +$7

world 3% −$52

finance 0% $0

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	32¢	$32	17h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	32¢	$160	17h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	32¢	$160	17h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	32¢	$160	17h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	20h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14?	BUY Yes	6¢	$0	23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17?	BUY No	8¢	$80	23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14?	BUY Yes	7¢	$70	23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14?	BUY Yes	8¢	$80	23h
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	BUY No	0¢	$2	42h
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	BUY No	0¢	$50	2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?	SELL No	0¢	$0	2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?	SELL No	0¢	$1	2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?	SELL No	0¢	$1	2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?	SELL No	0¢	$3	2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$4	2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$2	2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$0	2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$18	2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	SELL No	0¢	$135	2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	SELL No	0¢	$0	2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$8	2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$7	2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$30	2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$10	2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$56	2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$0	2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$0	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	BUY Down	27¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +32%

net ROI/market (all)+41.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	+56.6%	+41.7%	36%	32%	-18.8%
≤30d	22	+56.6%	+41.7%	36%	32%	-18.8%
≤90d	22	+56.6%	+41.7%	36%	32%	-18.8%
all	22	+56.6%	+41.7%	36%	32%	-18.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover14.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+41.7%	32%	-18.8%
10%	+28.1%	27%	-26.6%
15%	+15.8%	27%	-33.7%
20%	+4.4%	23%	-40.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $609.99 · official $609.99 (match) · 96 history records