Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:40:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12e1…51f6 weather 869 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (161 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$2,812 (+127%) realized +$2,759 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%50W / 462L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day160.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$669
7 days−$492
14 days+$10
30 days+$943
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% +$1,631
other 4% +$47
sports 1% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (161 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 368 -59.4% -63.2% 3% 3% -72.6%
≤30d 512 +41.1% +27.7% 10% 10% +42.8%
≤90d 512 +41.1% +27.7% 10% 10% +42.8%
all 512 +41.1% +27.7% 10% 10% +42.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover160.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +27.7% 10% +42.8%
10% ← realistic here +15.5% 10% +29.1%
15% +4.3% 10% +16.7%
20% -5.9% 10% +5.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +80% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +180% → late -97% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$2 · ×17.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized+$2,759
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses50 / 462
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions48
Markets (closed)512 / 869
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day160.7
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 512 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Yes 6¢ 100¢ $6 $110 +$104 (+1703%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+34%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+75%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+63%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 19? Yes 3¢ 7¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+142%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 14¢ 7¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-54%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+145%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+85%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 20? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+80%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 19? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+498%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 19? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-51%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 20? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 20? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+108%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C or higher on June 20? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-60%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 20? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 452 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on March 28? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 23? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on May 2? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 13? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 25? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 24? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on April 24? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 21? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 8? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 24? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 27? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2025? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 3? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on May 8? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 16? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 12? Jun 18 $4 −$3 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on May 15? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on March 28? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 9? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on May 26? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on May 21? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 9? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 23? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on May 15? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 15°C on April 8? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 12? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on April 14? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on May 13? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 1–August 8? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in January 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on March 25? Jun 18 $1 −$6 -406%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.61 · official $192.16 (match) · 3500 history records