Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:58:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
12 0x12e2…8f7a other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+4%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$21
world 22% +$17
sports 19% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.6% -12.7% 33% 33% -2.8%
≤30d 6 -3.6% -12.7% 33% 33% -2.8%
≤90d 6 -3.6% -12.7% 33% 33% -2.8%
all 6 -3.6% -12.7% 33% 33% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 33% -2.8%
10% -21.1% 33% -12.1%
15% -28.7% 33% -20.6%
20% -35.7% 33% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$12 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage7d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 22 $21 +$27 +129%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$26 +250%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $16 −$15 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $63 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $48 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $21 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $16 6d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $16 6d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.61 · official $61.61 (match) · 10 history records