Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:47:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
12 0x12e4…3494 crypto 457 markets active 0h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,581 (+3%) realized +$2,581 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate52%239W / 217L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$350
30 days−$350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,307
sports 0% −$16
other 0% −$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -5.0% -14.0% 81% 32% -10.0%
≤30d 160 -5.2% -14.2% 77% 29% -12.4%
≤90d 216 -9.2% -17.8% 75% 23% -7.4%
all 456 -6.3% -15.2% 52% 16% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 16% -7.4%
10% -23.3% 7% -16.3%
15% -30.8% 4% -24.4%
20% -37.5% 2% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$5 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.12 per $1 lost it wins $3.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$2,581
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses239 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)456 / 457
History coverage147d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 456 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Down 78¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $201 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $60 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 19 $60 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $60 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $61 −$17 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $41 −$19 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$15 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $81 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$11 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$15 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $40 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $40 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$19 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$8 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $40 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $81 +$10 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.55 · official $9.55 (match) · 1638 history records