Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:18:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
12 0x12e5…24f5 crypto 102 markets active 10d ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+3%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate93%95W / 7L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$12
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 100 +1.7% -8.0% 94% 17% -7.4%
≤90d 101 +0.7% -8.9% 93% 17% -7.4%
all 102 +0.7% -8.9% 93% 17% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 17% -7.4%
10% -17.6% 5% -16.3%
15% -25.6% 4% -24.4%
20% -32.9% 0% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$11 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses95 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 102
History coverage86d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$3 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$2 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$3 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$2 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$2 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$6 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $35 +$2 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $35 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$8 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $32 +$3 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $24 +$10 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $32 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $32 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$2 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $35 −$34 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $35 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $33 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $34 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $24 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $11 9d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $12 9d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $12 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $11 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $12 10d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 10d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 10d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $12 10d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 10d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $9 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $12 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $12 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $11 10d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $9 10d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 10d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $11 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $9 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $8 10d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $13 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $13 10d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $12 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $13 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $12 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $36 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $26 11d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $36 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 204 history records