Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:40:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x12e6…0714
other · 128 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$7,123 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$7,123 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$55
Realized+$7,123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses87 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)111 / 128
History coverage196d
Avg bet$769
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 17 History 111 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 69¢ 78¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 81¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 82¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 32¢ 22¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-30%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? No 94¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 58¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 87¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? No 93¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 12 $84 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $4 $0 +9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $54 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -74%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $15 $0 +1%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 01 $18 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $48 $0 +1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $3 $0 -13%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? May 20 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $3 $0 +4%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $4 $0 +12%
Netanyahu out by May 31? May 18 $3 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $1 $0 +7%
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $2 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025? May 09 $2 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? May 09 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Apr 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kawhi Leonard win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $2 $0 +1%
Taylor Swift pregnant by March 31? Apr 19 $2 $0 +3%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? Apr 19 $2 $0 +8%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 19 $3 $0 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 19 $3 $0 +4%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Apr 19 $4 $0 +3%
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 10% in 2025? Feb 25 $2 $0 +1%
Negative GDP growth in 2025? Feb 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 2-8? Feb 25 $2 $0 +2%
Moonbirds FDV above $400M one day after launch? Feb 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in January? Feb 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m Feb 06 $2 $0 +2%
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 31, 2026? Feb 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jan Feb 06 $2 $0 +2%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? Feb 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Feb 06 $2 $0 +8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 06 $4 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025? Feb 06 $2 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% +$7,131
culture 1% $0
other 0% $0
world 0% −$2
politics 0% −$6
sports 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 3m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 3m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 3m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 4m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 4m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 4m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 4m
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 29m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $1 49m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $0 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.2% -7.5% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 17 -4.3% -13.5% 82% 6% -8.9%
≤90d 37 -1.2% -10.6% 89% 3% -8.8%
all 111 -4.8% -13.9% 78% 5% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 5% -3.0%
10% -22.1% 1% -12.2%
15% -29.6% 1% -20.7%
20% -36.5% 1% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.78 · official $53.16 · 1496 history records