Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:16:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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12 0x12ea…1c4c crypto 214 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$47 (-9%) realized −$34 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate49%95W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days+$27
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -46.3% -51.4% 0% 0% -42.4%
≤30d 27 +13.7% +2.9% 37% 15% +38.1%
≤90d 79 +16.8% +5.7% 51% 16% +5.2%
all 194 +1.0% -8.6% 49% 14% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 14% -16.1%
10% -17.3% 10% -24.1%
15% -25.3% 8% -31.5%
20% -32.6% 6% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$34
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses95 / 99
Open positions20
Markets (closed)194 / 214
History coverage134d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 64¢ 30¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-54%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? No 23¢ 27¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+18%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 69¢ 80¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? No 44¢ 73¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+66%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.16 by December 31, 2026? No 59¢ 71¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.06 by December 31, 2026? Yes 77¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Yes 19¢ 3¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-86%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 30¢ 8¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Yes 30¢ 5¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-82%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 14¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Yes 13¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-86%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 41¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-60%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 32¢ 27¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $90 in June? Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? Jun 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 09 $1 $0 -12%
Will XRP reach $1.40 in June? Jun 07 $1 $0 -31%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 -7%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? Jun 06 $1 $0 -18%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 5? Jun 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 5? Jun 05 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $3 +$17 +479%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Jun 05 $12 +$15 +130%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $1 $0 +8%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June? Jun 05 $1 $0 +38%
Will Solana dip to $70 in June? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $1 +$5 +446%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May? Jun 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? May 18 $2 −$2 -67%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 8? May 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? May 06 $3 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? May 04 $6 +$2 +37%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 1? May 01 $1 $0 +37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 1? May 01 $3 $0 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 1? May 01 $1 $0 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 1? May 01 $4 +$3 +86%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? May 01 $1 $0 -38%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? May 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? May 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? May 01 $1 $0 +3%
Will Solana dip to $70 in April? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -67%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 24? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -90%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on April 3? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 3? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 3? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 3? Apr 03 $3 −$1 -42%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 3? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 3? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -83%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 3? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -92%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 3? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 3? Apr 03 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 1¢ $1 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? SELL No 76¢ $0 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 4h
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? SELL No 82¢ $1 9h
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? SELL No 79¢ $0 15h
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? SELL No 82¢ $0 23h
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? SELL No 86¢ $0 23h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $0 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 32h
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? SELL No 86¢ $0 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? SELL No 89¢ $0 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $1 3d
Will Solana reach $90 in June? SELL No 96¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.45 · official $17.90 · 1952 history records