Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:29:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

12
0x12ed…c9b4
other · 58 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$3,256 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,443 · open +$770
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$2,627
Realized+$1,443
Unrealized+$770
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses28 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)53 / 58
Avg bet$1,073
Trades / day197.3
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 5 History 53 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$384
7 days−$43
14 days+$262
30 days+$1,443
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 49¢ 70¢ $1,777 $2,552 +$775 (+44%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $70 $64 −$6 (-9%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $7 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $236 $0 −$236 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $22 +$5 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $450 −$17 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $14 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $140 +$21 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 11 $57 +$3 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $230 −$12 -5%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $18 +$2 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1,280 −$104 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1,615 +$487 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $372 +$46 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3,622 −$741 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4,212 +$250 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $350 −$46 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $42 −$10 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $2,760 +$124 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $1,893 −$137 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $76 −$18 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $933 −$173 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $964 +$97 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $1,056 −$65 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $3,608 +$247 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $599 −$114 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $318 −$19 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $861 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1,629 +$194 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $784 −$48 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $664 +$175 +26%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 03 $21 −$2 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $3,566 +$249 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $3,362 +$785 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 02 $825 −$557 -68%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $1,232 −$195 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $948 −$285 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $513 −$58 -11%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $2,198 +$117 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $1,736 +$68 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $451 −$17 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $586 −$61 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $3,196 +$73 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $1,718 +$305 +18%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $408 −$83 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 28 $73 −$11 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $325 −$19 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $2,082 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 27 $152 +$76 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $451 +$409 +91%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $38 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 27 $1 +$7 +524%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $99 +$403 +408%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% +$2,213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $70 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $135 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $215 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $31 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $24 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $27 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $227 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $8 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $255 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $148 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $142 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $52 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $79 3h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $23 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -4.1% -13.3% 52% 19% -7.5%
≤30d 53 +17.3% +6.1% 53% 26% -6.1%
≤90d 53 +17.3% +6.1% 53% 26% -6.1%
all 53 +17.3% +6.1% 53% 26% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover197.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.1% 26% -6.1%
10% -4.1% 19% -15.1%
15% ← realistic here -13.3% 9% -23.3%
20% -21.8% 8% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,626.98 · official $2,626.98 (match) · 3500 history records