Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:19:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
12 0x12f0…49f0 crypto 993 markets active 10h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%446W / 500L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day94.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$21
14 days+$124
30 days+$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$124
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 184 -10.9% -19.4% 43% 43% -19.3%
≤30d 946 +1.1% -8.5% 47% 47% -6.2%
≤90d 946 +1.1% -8.5% 47% 47% -6.2%
all 946 +1.1% -8.5% 47% 47% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 47% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 47% -15.1%
15% -25.3% 47% -23.3%
20% -32.6% 47% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses446 / 500
Open positions0
Markets (closed)946 / 993
History coverage12d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day94.8
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 946 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1595 history records