Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:39:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
12 0x12f1…3cd3 sports 717 markets active 2h ago coverage 366d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,893 (+5%) realized +$4,893 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%393W / 324L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$445est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$994
14 days+$1,428
30 days+$1,428
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$2,610
other 23% +$1,789
crypto 1% −$66
world 0% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +9.1% -1.3% 53% 53% +0.6%
≤30d 57 +13.1% +2.4% 54% 54% +4.5%
≤90d 240 -1.5% -10.8% 50% 46% -5.7%
all 717 +3.9% -6.0% 55% 49% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 49% -5.5%
10% -15.0% 44% -14.5%
15% -23.2% 39% -22.8%
20% -30.7% 31% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$93 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

366d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,893
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses393 / 324
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$445
Open positions0
Markets (closed)717 / 717
History coverage366d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 717 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $310 +$136 +44%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $137 −$135 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $161 −$159 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $158 −$155 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $215 −$210 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $231 +$147 +64%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $200 +$200 +100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $164 −$162 -99%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 18 $56 +$24 +43%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $192 −$110 -57%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $152 +$88 +58%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $57 +$243 +426%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $135 +$17 +12%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $168 +$132 +78%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $391 −$126 -32%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $380 +$186 +49%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $335 +$44 +13%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $122 −$120 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $152 −$150 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $279 +$330 +118%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $304 +$196 +64%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $135 +$165 +122%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $57 +$243 +426%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $234 +$251 +108%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $219 −$141 -64%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $87 −$87 -100%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 16 $81 +$36 +44%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $289 +$211 +73%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $171 −$168 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $179 −$101 -56%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5) Jun 16 $121 +$17 +14%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $167 −$54 -32%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $119 −$16 -14%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $259 +$241 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $162 +$44 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $97 +$103 +105%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $120 +$80 +67%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $199 −$195 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $224 +$179 +80%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $67 −$67 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $84 +$116 +138%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $61 +$39 +64%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $223 +$225 +101%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $374 −$369 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $371 +$227 +61%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $244 −$240 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL KT Rolster Challengers 60¢ $375 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL KT Rolster Challengers 43¢ $71 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 38¢ $310 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 45¢ $137 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $161 5h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $158 11h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $215 13h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 94¢ $125 16h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 94¢ $42 16h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 95¢ $100 16h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 95¢ $7 16h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 95¢ $104 16h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $231 16h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $400 17h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 26¢ $53 17h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $27 17h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $173 17h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $164 18h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri SELL Daniel Rincon 80¢ $80 18h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 21¢ $82 18h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $180 19h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $9 19h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $3 19h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Daniel Rincon 55¢ $56 19h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 80¢ $226 32h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 81¢ $14 32h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 50¢ $152 32h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 76¢ $144 34h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 78¢ $8 34h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 67¢ $135 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3022 history records